Do Killings Make Mexico Ripe for Revolution?

HOUSTON - Drug cartel killings are out-of-control and some observers say that’s making Mexico ripe for revolution.

It’s a critical time on the US side of the border because so many schools are on spring break and Mexico is a favorite destination for college students looking to blow off some steam.

The spring breaker’s cautionary tale, however, can be summed up with one name: Mark Kilroy.

In 1989, the UT student from the Houston area was murdered, mutilated and buried with 14 others.

He’d vanished while visiting Matamoros with his frat brothers.

Twenty-one years later, this past Saturday, on the anniversary of Kilroy’s disappearance, three Americans connected to the US consulate were gunned down in Ciudad Juarez.

El Paso private eye Jay J. Armes believes the violence will cause Mexican citizens to rise up in revolt.

“I predict that there's going to be a revolution within six months, in Mexico, absolutely, people can not take it any more.”

Last year alone in Juarez, there were more than 2600 murders.

For a city of 1.3 million people, this works out to one out of every 500 residents, slain in 2009.

And the truth could be worse, says Rice University political science professor Mark Jones.

“That's clearly the floor. It's going to be higher than that, it's unclear, no one knows for sure how much higher, but it certainly is at least a little higher.”

Still, Jones does not think a revolution will result.

“The most likely scenario,” he says, “is in 2012, the President's political party, the National Action Party, will not retain the presidency.”

Ironic, considering the bloodshed is a symptom of Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s call-to-arms against the cartels.

On Sunday, the US State Department issued a travel warning for Mexico.

“It has gotten beyond the point that certainly this country feels that the Mexican government is able to keep some type of safety and stability in its country,” says former FBI Special Agent-in-Charge Don Clark.

But that message may be lost on those who need to hear it most: college students.

“I mean, it's a good time, it's pretty close, cheap,” says student Ryan Gupta. “I think it'd be a good time; I had some friends go, they liked it.”